A Dynamic Unified Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Analysis and Prediction Spanning across the Coastal Floodplain and Ocean

Project Sponsor: National Science Foundation PREEVENTS Track 2

Project Announcement: In the wake of wildfires and earthquakes, hurricanes and floods, NSF awards $19 million in natural hazards research grants

Project Team: Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink (PI); University of Texas at Austin: Clint Dawson (co-PI);  Ohio State University: Ethan Kubatko (co-PI); University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Laxmikant Kale

Project Summary: Storm-driven coastal flooding is influenced by many physical processes including riverine flows, regional rainfall, wind, atmospheric pressure, wave-induced set up, wave runup, tides, and fluctuating baseline ocean water levels. Operational storm surge models such as NOAA's Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) incorporate a variety of these processes including riverine discharges, atmospheric winds and pressure, waves, and tides. However, coastal surge models do not typically incorporate the impact of rainfall across the coastal floodplain nor fluctuations in background water levels due to the oceanic density structure. Nonetheless, the floodplain hydrology and ocean baseline water levels provide vital controls in riverine and estuarine environments (e.g., the dramatic effect seen in the Houston metropolitan region during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and in North Carolina during Hurricane Florence in 2018). Recent events have shown that a unified approach that incorporates all of the relevant physical processes is critical for accurate predictive simulations of coastal flooding due to extreme events. This project will tackle this challenge by melding hydrology, hydraulics, and waves into a dynamic unified computational framework that uses unstructured meshes spanning from the deep ocean to upland areas and across the coastal floodplain. More accurate coastal flood forecast and analysis models will better inform forecasters in the National Weather Service and state and local disaster managers to issue warnings for evacuation and emergency planning. In addition, insurance companies and planners will be better able to assess flood risk in coastal zones.  Finally, improved flood models will lead to better guidance on development and construction practices and will help make cities more resilient and will reduce risk for coastal populations and infrastructure.

The proposed unified framework will improve the predicted water level gradient and flows throughout the coastal floodplain by integrally considering the rainfall-driven hydrology within the coastal floodplain and improving the background open ocean water level. Well-developed but coarse global ocean models will be heterogeneously coupled to a high-resolution 2D shallow water equation model in order to account for large-scale baroclinic ocean processes that impact coastal water levels. Specifically temperature and salinity fields and vertical velocity profiles will be extracted from a global three dimensional HYCOM model and downscaled and used to drive baroclinic pressure gradient terms and internal tide generation/dissipation terms in a high resolution two dimensional implementation of ADCIRC. This will account for the impact of the ocean’s baroclinicity and current systems on coastal and inland water levels.  Across the coastal floodplain, rainfall runoff will be gravity driven and is described well by the kinematic wave equation. On the other hand, as storm surge propagates overland, the flow pressurizes and the flow is described by the shallow water equations. We will develop strategies to dynamically apply the correct governing equations/physics depending on the prevailing hydraulics. Interface strategies and conditions between heterogeneous physics will be developed that allow the interfaces to move in time and space for the range of physics, from dry to surface runoff to pressurized flow. Applying the right physics and associated mathematical models as the storms evolve will result in more robust, accurate and efficient models. Thus our approach will dynamically account for the hydrologic-hydrodynamic interaction of water across the floodplain. Dynamic load balancing will account for widely varying CPU costs for each set of physics and the dynamic migration of the physics will be implemented within a heterogeneous parallel computing environment.

A conceptual schematic of the proposed modeling framework, highlighting three distinct zones: (i) the ocean zone, where the ADCIRC+SWAN model is applied, with key hydrodynamic input being provided by HYCOM, (ii) the upland hydological rainfall-runoff zone, which makes use of the WRF-Hydro model, and (iii) the important middle or transition zone in between these two regions, which calls for a dynamic, adaptive physics and computational framework.

_____________________________________________________________________________________
 Schematic of the proposed computational modeling framework, the centerpiece of which consists of a single common unstructured mesh that is dynamically load balanced between dry regions (null solutions) and regions characterized by pressurized 2D flow and wave energy (solved using ADCIRC+SWAN) or by gravity-driven, rainfall runoff (solved using DG-SAKE). Critical meteorological and oceanic data will be provided to the core of this modeling framework through one-way coupling with existing, well-established weather/climate, hydrology, and global ocean models (GFS/CFSv2, WRF-Hydro and HYCOM, respectively).

Advancing ADCIRC U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Grids and Capabilities to Facilitate Coupling to the National Water Model in ESTOFS Operational Forecasting

Project Sponsor:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) FY 2018 Joint Technology Transfer Initiative

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink (PI), William Pringle (Research faculty), Maria Teresa Contreras-Vargas (Ph.D. student);  NOAA’s National Ocean Service - Coast Survey and Development Laboratory (in-kind):  Saeed Moghimi (co-PI), Sergey Vinogradov(co-PI); NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (in-kind):  Andre van der Westhuysen (co-PI)

Project Goal: Implement physics based refinements, computational efficiency strategies, and improved and automated meshing strategies within and in support of the ADCIRC code in order to produce the next generation Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) for the U.S. Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean coasts and floodplains.  ADCIRC total water levels will incorporate hydrologic rainfall/runoff and the impact of the ocean’s temperature and salinity fields and current systems.  We are implementing a coupling to the National Water Model (NWM) WRF-Hydro code at both upstream and lateral boundaries of ADCIRC’s wet/dry interface. Direct rainfall volume over  ADCIRC’s inundated coastal floodplain regions will also be included using GFS rainfall data. Baroclinically driven physics in ADCIRC will be incorporated using RTOFS/HYCOM density fields to simulate the inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in the coastal background water levels, the effect of major ocean current systems such as the Gulf Stream and to include the dissipative effects of internal tides generated over steep topography with significant density gradients. Our updated model will also be tightly two way coupled to WAVEWATCH III to force the radiation stress terms in ADCIRC and enhance coastal setup. All model couplings will interact through the ESMF/NUOPC/NEMS infrastructure. We are also implementing an updated version of ADCIRC that will bypass dry floodplain elements through loop re-organization and clipping and will rebalance element subdomain assignments using Zoltan in order to maintain equal subdomain/core compute loads as elements wet and dry throughout the computational domain.  This will eliminate most of the costs of handling dry elements and thus allow for more efficient computations and/or higher resolution floodplain meshes. We will also develop improved capabilities to automatically generate more accurate, less expensive, and more robust meshes through the objective/parameter based OceanMesh2D software.

Automatically generated meshes of the dendritic estuaries along the South Carolina coast at varying resolution levels

Building Coupled Storm Surge and Wave Operational Forecasting Capacity for Western Alaska
Project Sponsor:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) FY2017 Ocean Technology Transition Project

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink (PI), Dam Wirasaet (co-PI), David Richter (co-PI),  William Pringle (Research faculty), Guoming Ling (Post-doctoral fellow), Mindo Choi (Post-doctoral fellow); UT Austin:Clint Dawson (co-PI), Kyle Steffen (Post-doctoral fellow);  NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory: Philip Chu (co-PI), Jia Wang (co-PI);  Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, University of Michigan:Ayumi Manome; Haoguo Hu;  Alaska Ocean Observing System:Carol Janzen (co-PI); Axiom Data Science: Robert Bochenek (co-PI), William Koeppen (co-PI), Ian Gill; NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (in-kind): Andre van der Westhuysen (co-PI), Robert Grumbine (co-PI), Ali Abdolali;  NOAA’s National Ocean Service - Coast Survey and Development Laboratory (in-kind): Edward Myers, Sergey Vinogradov (co-PI), Saeed Moghimi

Project Collaborators:  Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS); Alaska’s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO).

Project Goals:  A multi-scale, multi-process integrally coupled wave-surge-ice forecast modeling system will be refined and validated with a focus on RL6 to RL8 transition to operations while resolving key issues that presently limit forecast reliability in western Alaska. The integration of multiple physical processes spanning the entire energy spectrum of the ocean and the application of high localized mesh resolution to correctly resolve these processes are at the heart of this project. We will compute surge and tides, wind waves, ocean temperatures and salinities and the currents they drive, and sea ice by coupling the ADCIRC, WAVEWATCH III, Global RTOFS, and CICE models. Each model will compute select processes/information and the linkages will inform the other models so that the combined total energy of the ocean can be much better accounted for. The high resolution unstructured mesh ADCIRC model will cover all Alaskan waters including the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The resulting ALaska Coastal Ocean Forecast System (ALCOFS) is illustrated in the accompanying figure showing linkages and interactions between model components. The proposed wave, surge and tide, ocean circulation and sea ice models are all compliant with and will be coupled through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) National Unified Operational Prediction Capacity (NUOPC) standards. All system components will be designed to ultimately fit into the NOAA ESTOFS Pacific Storm Surge Guidance System framework. The specific goal is to enable significant advancement of NOAA’s high fidelity operational surge and wave models, ADCIRC and WAVEWATCH III, within the northern Pacific Ocean, Bering, Chukchi and Arctic Seas.

The integrated ALCOFS (ALaska Coastal Ocean Forecast System) showing linkages and interactions between model components.

Sea Ice Effects on Storm Surge Prediction in the Alaska Region through NEMS Coupling Infrastructure
Project Sponsor:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Round 3 of Research to Operations Initiative: NOAA Testbeds

Project Team: Notre Dame:  Joannes Westerink (PI), William Pringle (Research faculty), Mindo Choi (Post-doctoral associate);  NOAA’s National Ocean Service - Coast Survey and Development Laboratory (in-kind): Saeed Moghimi (co-PI), Sergey Vinogradov (co-PI);  NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (in-kind):  Andre van der Westhuysen (co-PI), Robert Grumbine (co-PI)

Project Goal:  A NEMS coupled application of ADCIRC, WAVEWATCH III and CICE will be developed, tested and validated for all of coastal Alaska. This will fill a current operational gap for coastal Alaska and will also improve our understanding of how water levels, currents, and wave conditions on inner shelves and along coasts in the Arctic change as sea ice conditions become more variable on an inter- and intra- annual basis. This project builds on extensive existing collaborations between Notre Dame, NOS, and NCEP, especially on a completed Western Alaska LCC funded effort which built a basis ADCIRC model in the region. The new ADCIRC+WAVEWATCH+CICE NUOPC based coupling will allow for the direct discernment of how the wind-ice-water-wave interactions modify waves and water levels along the coast. The goal will be to produce an operational ready implementation so that the entire Alaska region can be incorporated into the ESTOFS modeling suite and the new generation models can be used to support VDATUM studies in Alaska.

Simulation results of the largest storm surge event  of the 2019 Alaskan Winter (maximum water levels for 7 day period from February 8 to 14, 2019 due to tides and surge, left), peaking on February 12-13th, that was enhanced due to the fractured ice conditions (maximum effect of fractured ice during the same  7 day period, right).

Coastal Inundation in Developed Regions

Project Sponsor:  National Institute of Standards (NIST)

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Andrew Kennedy (PI), Joannes Westerink (co-PI), Joaquin Moris (Ph.D. student), Mayilvahanan AlaganChella (Post-doctoral fellow)

Project Goals:  Develop and test methodologies to improve predictions of inundation hydrodynamics and loading in developed (urban) regions for both storm wave and tsunami inundation, as aligned with the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program and the Structural Performance under Multi-Hazard Program. In particular, we will investigate how to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty in the bare-earth computations which will continue to be used for the immediate future. The Applied Technology Council will convene a Project Oversight Committee to ensure that the research is in a form suitable for adoption by professionals, and will lead in the translation of this research to the profession. Thus, project results will be released in forms suitable for inclusion into professional standards.

Movie of a solitary wave (H/h = 0.5) propagating up a sloping beach past a configuration of six building as computed with IHFOAM. Wave loads are reduced in sheltered buildings as shown in the right.

Development of a South Atlantic Mainland ADCIRC Mesh

Project Sponsor:  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal Hydraulic Laboratory

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink (PI), William Pringle (Research faculty), Maria Teresa Contreras-Vargas (Ph.D. student)

Project Goal:  Develop two high-fidelity, basin-to-channel unstructured meshes for the prediction of accurate water levels and currents along the United States South Atlantic. One model will be developed to compute with a higher timestep (2-s), while the other grid will compute at a smaller timestep (1-s) but contain more shoreline geometry. Upon completion, the 1-sec timestep mesh will be exchanged with another model development team at Louisiana State University (LSU) that will be working on the other sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The final high resolution mesh of the South Atlantic coastline will be merged together with the Gulf of Mexico model by the LSU team. Together these meshes will form a comprehensive model that spans the entire South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines with high resolution triangular mesh elements. These models will be used to simulate water levels for the assessment of coastal risk in the North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study Part II.

The FMGlobal Integrated Western North Atlantic Coastal Hazard Model

Project Sponsor:  FM Global

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Joannes Westerink (PI), William Pringle (Research faculty), Keith Roberts (Ph.D. student), Maria Teresa Contreras-Vargas (Ph.D. student)

Project Goal:   Develop an integrated Western North Atlantic Ocean coastal hydrodynamic hazard model. Specifically an integrated model will be developed for all North Atlantic coasts including those in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea focusing on water level and wave environments. The driving processes are the combination of tides, winds, atmospheric pressures and wind waves to determine coastal and inland flooding hazards, the currents associated with these processes to understand erosion and structural forces, and wind wave action to understand forces and allow for wave run up estimates.

Improving Operational Forecasting Through Enhanced Ensemble Storm Selection

Project Sponsor:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Project Team:  Notre Dame: Alex Taflanidis (PI), Joannes Westerink (co-PI)

Project Goal: Forecasting the level and timing of inundation for an incoming (landfilling) hurricane is critical for evacuation and rescue operations in support of regional emergency response management decisions. National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides probabilistic storm surge forecasts using an ensemble of storms, with typical ensembles used to support this statistical surge forecasting including over 1000 storms, corresponding to realistic track, intensity and size possibilities. The ensemble forecast and storm surge statistical predictions are updated every few (typically 6) hours, whenever new NHC advisories become available. Though significant attention has been given in improving the forecast models (reducing the forecast errors), facilitating important advanced over the past decade in providing higher accuracy predictions for track and intensity of landfalling hurricanes, little to no attention has been given in reducing the ensemble size used to statistically characterize the resultant surge risk (that is, for efficient uncertainty propagation to estimate expected surge statistics).

(top)

Tides and Storm Surge in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea

Project Sponsors: Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Research Division, ONR

Collaborators: Andrew Kennedy, University of Notre Dame

Project Documentation:
Pringle, W.J., D. Wirasaet, A. Suhardjo, J. Meixner, J.J. Westerink, A.B. Kennedy, S. Nong, "Finite-Element barotropic model for the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans: Tidal model-data comparisons and sensitivities," Ocean Modeling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.003, 129, 13-38, 2018.

Project Goal: Develop a comprehensive high resolution model of barotropic tides and wind driven surge, circulation and wind waves in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. Study intra-seasonal wind driven circulation and set-up patterns, in particular looking at advectively driven eddy structures on and adjacent to the shelf and other topographic features, taking advantage of the high resolution capabilities of the model. Our goal is to develop a better understanding of the regional tidal and wind/storm driven waves, surge, and currect physics.

NSF S12-SSI: Collaborative Research: STORM: A Scalable Toolkit for an Open Community Supporting Near Realtime High Resolution Coastal Modeling

Collaborators: Hartmut Kaiser, Robert Twilley, LSU; Richard Luettich, UNC: Clint Dawson, UT Austin

Project Goal: The aim of STORM is to broaden the ADCIRC coastal circulation and storm surge model from a successful, somewhat static coastal modeling tool that is tied to a single solution algorithm and MPI, to a dynamic computational platform that is comprised of multiple solution algorithms and is built on a transformational new parallelization scheme allowing us to scale to at least 256k compute cores. We expect this effort will shorten the time required to provide reliable forecast and improve our ability to provide highly resolved, accurate, and physically complete predictions on an unprecedented scale. Notre Dame's focus within the scope of this large project is to investigate how to include discontinuous Galerkin finite element algorithms, higher order methods, and hp adaptivity within the broader ADCIRC framework with the goal of achieving faster and more accurate solutions.

Project Documentation:
Brus, S.R., D. Wirasaet, E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "High-order discontinuous Galerkin methods for coastal hydrodynamics applications," Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, DOI 10.1016/j.cma.2019.07.003, 335, 860-899,2019.

Michoski, C., C. Dawson, E.J. Kubatko, D. Wirasaet, S. Brus, J.J. Westerink, "A Comparison of Artificial Viscosity, Limiters, and Filters, for High Order Discontinuous Galerkin Solutions in Nonlinear Settings," Journal of Scientific Computing, DOI 10.1007/s10915-015-0027-2, 66, 1, 406-434, 2016.

Wirasaet, D., S.R. Brus, C.E. Michoski, E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "Artificial boundary layers in discontinuous Galerkin solutions to shallow water equations in channels," Journal of Computational Physics, 299, 579-612, 2015.

Wirasaet, D., E.J. Kubatko, C.E. Michoski, S. Tanaka, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "Discontinuous Galerkin methods with nodal and hybrid modal/nodal triangular, quadrilateral, and polygonal elements for nonlinear shallow water flow," Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 270, 113-149, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2013.11.006, 2014.

STORM Overview Poster

For more info see: 
http://storm.stellar-group.org/

NSF Collaborative Research: Data-Driven Inverse Sensitivity Analysis for Predictive Coastal Ocean Modeling

Project Sponsors: National Science Foundation

Collaborators: Donald Estep, Troy Butler, Colorado State University; Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin

Project Goal: The project goal is to solve stochastic inverse problems by applying a measure-theoretic methodology in order to quantify the uncertainty of parameters such as bathymetry and bottom friction in the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model with specific application to coastal ateas of the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, we are investigating improvements in the efficiency and accuracy of the ADCIRC forward model for shallow water flows through the use of high order discontinuous Galerkin solutions. This has the potential to dramatically increase the efficiency of solving the stochastic inverse problem due to the large number of forward model simulations involved.

Project Documentation:
Butler, T., L. Graham, D. Estep, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, "Definition and solution of a stochastic inverse problem for the Manning's n parameter field in hydrodynamic models," Advances in Water Resources, 78, 60-79, 2015.

Butler, T., D. Estep, S. Tavener, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, "A Measure-Theoretic Computational Method for Inverse Sensitivity Problems III: Multiple Quantities of Interest," SIAM/ASA Journal of Uncertainty Quantification, 2, 174-202, 2014.

Wirasaet, D., E. Kubatko, C. Michoski, S. Tanaka, J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "Discontinuous Galerkin methods with nodal and hybrid nodal/modal triangular quadrilateral, and polygonal elements for nonlinear shallow water flows," Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 270, 113-149, 2014.

NOAA NRDA (Natural Resource Damage Assessment) ADCIRC Circulation Modeling: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Project Sponsors: NOAA Fisheries

Collaborators: John Quinlan, NOAA Fisheries

Project Goal: Model development and providing hindcasts of the oceanic/estuarine hydrodynamic circulation and transport for the Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) for the Deepwater Horizon Incident in the Gulf of Mexico. Understanding the impact of winds, wave radiation stress, tides and advection on currents. Tracking dolphine and turtle carcasses. Examining the fate of oyster spat.

A High Resolution Integrally Coupled-Ice, Tide, Wind-Wave and Storm Surge Model for Western Alaska

Project Sponsors: Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative, NCEP, NDS

Collaborators: Andre Van der Westhuysen, Hendrik Tolman, Bob Grumbine, NCEP; Jesse Feyen, NOS

Project Goal: The western coastline of Alaska contains over 10,000 km of diverse topography that is highly susceptible to large coastal storms which cause coastal erosion and flooding that have severely negative impacts on environmental and commercial efforts. This large domain SWAN/WWIII+ADCIRC modelwith high resolution along the western coastline will be used to assess the vulnerability of the region to coastal storms incurrent conditions as well as under reduced ice cover.

Project Documentation:
Joyce, B.R., W.J. Pringle, D. Wirasaet, J.J. Westerink, A.J. Van der Westhuysen, R. Grumbine, J. Feyen, "High Resolution Modeling of Western Alaska Tides and Storm Surge under Varying Sea Ice Conditions," Ocean Modeling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101421, 141, 101421, 2019. 

A Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin islands, Surge and Wave Inundation Model Testbed

Project Sponsors: IOOS, NOAA

Collaborators: Andre Van der Westhuysen, NCEP NOAA; Andrew Kennedy, ND; Julio Morell, CariCOOS, Jane Smith, USACE

Project Goal: Deep ocean islands are vulnerable to hurrican driven storm surges and wind waves. The physics of these processes on deep ocean islands are very different from that on wide continental shelves. In particular intricate reef systems and large onshore wave runup complicate wave dynamics. A new high resolution computational model properly represents the irregular coasts and steep underwater slopes of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while the data collected over a reef area under winter swell conditions provides new data to advance the understanding of big waves breaking on such environments. The combination of both methodologies is crucial to determine and predict the coastal storm surge and wave hazards on islands. Forecasting water levels and waves during storms and hurricanes through the SWAN+ADCIRC wave and circulation model and phase resolving Boussinesq models. Better understanding of breaking of big waves during natural, non-laboratory events. Application of near shore wave models for coastal and harbor safety.

Project Documentation:
Pringle, W.J., J. Gonzalez-Lopez, B. Joyce, J. Westerink, A. van der Westhuysen, "Baroclinic Coupling Improves Depth-Integrated Modeling of Coastal Sea Level Variations around Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands," Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, DOI 10.1029/2018JC014682, 124, 2196-2217, 2019.
Joyce, B.R., J. Gonzalez-Lopez, A.J. Van der Westhuysen, D. Yang, W.J. Pringle, J.J. Westerink, A.T. Cox, "U.S. IOOS coastal modeling testbed: Hurricane-induced winds, waves and surge for deep-ocean, reef fringed islands in the Caribbean," Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, DOI 10.1029/2018JC014687, 124, 4, 2876-2907, 2019.

Model Development for Western North Pacific

Project Sponsors: FM Global

Collaborators: Shangyao Nong, Hosam Ali, FM Global

Project Goal: This project aims to develop a high resolution model coupling atmospheric, wind, wave and tidal surge events in the South China Seas. Although sectors of high resolution are currently limited to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and South Korea, the validation study is expanding improvedprecision of tidal and storm surge prediction to the greater Pacific and Indian Oceans. When joined with existing computational models of oceanic, marine, and deltaic systems worldwide, the Storm Surge Model development allows for a truly comprehensive assessment of water elevation and circulation forecasts of coastal storms.

Project Documentation:
Joyce, B.R., W.J. Pringle, D. Wirasaet, J.J. Westerink, A.J. Van der Westhuysen, R. Grumbine, J. Feyen, "High Resolution Modeling of Western Alaska Tides and Storm Surge under Varying Sea Ice Conditions," Ocean Modeling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101421, 141, 101421, 2019.

NSF CMG Collaborative Research: Simulation of Wave-Current Interaction Using Novel, Coupled and Non-Phase and Phase-Resolving Wave and Current Models

Project Sponsor: National Science Foundation

Collaborators: Andrew Kennedy, University of Notre Dame; Ethan Kubatko, Ohio State University; Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin

Project Goal: Accurate representation of nearshore physics during major storm events such as hurricanes is an important component of inundation prediction for coastal communities.  In order to improve the capabilities of the ADCIRC model to predict wave action, wave breaking, and wave run-up in the nearshore region we have been working to develop a set of nearshore phase-resolving wave models that can be incorporated with currently used ocean circulation models such as ADCIRC.
This project has taken two directions: the development of a Boussinesq-type model to predict fluid velocities and free-surface which is capable of capturing rotational velocitiesthrough the incorporation of a Green-Naghdi type approximation along the vertical axis;  and the second direction involves the development of a Boussinesq-type nonhydrostatic pressure module which, when coupled with a hydrostatic circulation model, will allow the model to capture dispersive effects in shallow water and better resolve the nearshore wave dynamics.

Project Documentation:
Zhang, Y., A.B. Kennedy, T. Tomiczek, A. Donahue, J.J Westerink, "Validation of Boussinesq-Green-Naghdi modeling for surf zone hydrodynamics," Ocean Engineering, 111, 290-309, 2016.

Donahue, A.S., Y. Zhang, A.B. Kennedy, J.J. Westerink, N. Panda, C. Dawson, "A Boussinesq-scaled, Pressure-Poisson water wave model," Ocean Modeling, 86, 36-57, 2015.

Zhang, Y., A. B. Kennedy, N. Panda, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, “Generating–absorbing sponge layers for phase-resolving wave models,” Coastal Engineering, 84, 1-9, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.019, 2014.

Zhang, Y., A.B. Kennedy, N. Panda, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, "Boussinesq-Green-Naghdi rotational water wave theory," Coastal Engineering, 73, 13-27, 2013.

Zhang, Y., A.B. Kennedy, A.S. Donahue, J.J. Westerink, N. Panda, C. Dawson, “Rotational surf zone modeling for O(μ4) Boussinesq–Green–Naghdi systems,” http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.04.001, Ocean Modeling, 79, 43–53, 2014.

Panda, N., C. Dawson, Y. Zhang, A. Kennedy, J. Westerink, A. Donahue, "Discontinuous Galerkin methods for solving Boussinesq-Green-Naghdi equations in resolving non-linear and dispersive surface water waves," Journal of Computational Physics, 273, 572-588, 2014.

SURA-IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed (SURA-IOOS COMT)

Project Sponsors: IOOS, NOAA, Sura

Collaborators:  R. Luettich, UNC; L. Zheng, R. Weisberg, Y. Huang, University of South Florida; H. Wang, Y. Teng, D. Forrest, Virinia Institute of Marine Sciences; A. Roland, Darmstadt University of Technology; A. Haase, A. Kramer, A. Taylor, J. Rhome, NWS, NOAA; J. Feyen, NDS, NOAA; R. Signell, Woods Hole Science Center, USGS; J. Hanson, J. Smith, ERDC, USACE; A. Kennedy, University of Notre Dame; M. Powell, HRD, NOAA; V. Cardone, A. Cox, Ocean Weather Inc.

Project Goal: The SURA led coastal and ocean modeling testbed. The goal is to bring the various communities of modelers together in an effort to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the network of coastal inundation models currently in operational use.  By bringing together members of the coastal inundation community the testbed project not only assesses the individual strengths of each model, but also creates a dialogue between modelers for the improvement of the entire set of models currently in use.  This project looks at the accuracy and computational efficiency of these models for both tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico and extra-tropical storms along the Atlantic coast of the United States. We have taken the lead on the Gulf of Mexico component of the testbed and are currently comparing the accuracy of tides simulation and model hindcasts for Hurricanes Ike and Rita using a Gulf of Mexico mesh specifically designed for this project.  This direct comparison between models for the same storms and same mesh allows for an accurate comparison of models and more importantly has created a platformfor each of the modeling teams to discuss ways to improve the models.

Project Documentation:
Kerr, P.C., R.C. Martyr, A.S. Donahue, M.E. Hope, J.J. Westerink, R.A. Luettich Jr., A.B. Kennedy, J.C. Dietrich, C. Dawson, H.J. Westerink, "U.S. IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed: Evaluation of tide, wave, and hurricane surge response sensitivities to mesh resolution and friction in the Gulf of Mexico," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 4633-4661, DOI 10.1002/jgrc.20305, 2013.

Kerr, P.C., A.S. Donahue, J.J. Westerink, R.A. Luettich Jr., L.Y. Zheng, R.H. Weisberg, Y. Huang, H.V. Wang, Y. Teng, D.R. Forrest, A. Roland, A.T. Haase, A.W. Kramer, A.A.Taylor, J.R. Rhome, J.C. Feyen, R.P. Signell, J.L. Hanson, M.E. Hope, R.M. Estes, R.A. Dominguez, R.P. Dunbar, L.N. Semeraro, H.J. Westerink, A.B. Kennedy, J.M. Smith, M.D. Powell, V.J.Cardone, A.T. Cox, "U.S. IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed: Inter-model evaluation of tides, waves, and hurricane surge in the Gulf of Mexico," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118,10, 5129-5172, DOI 10.1002/jgrc.20376, 2013.

Chen, C., R.C. Beardsley, R.A. Luettich Jr., J.J. Westerink, H. Wang, W. Perrie, Q. Xu, A.S. Donahue, J. Qi, H. Lin, L. Zhao, P.C. Kerr, Y. Meng, B. Toulany, "Extratropical storm inundation testbed: Intermodel comparisons in Scituate, Massachusetts," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 10, 5054-5073, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20397, 2013.

Zheng, L., R.H. Weisberg, Y. Huang, R.A. Luettich, J.J. Westerink, P.C. Kerr, A.S. Donahue, G. Crane, L. Akli, "Implications from the comparisons between two- and three-dimensional model simulations of the Hurricane Ike storm surge," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 3350-3369, DOI: 10.1002/jgrc.20248, 2013.

Storm Surge Model Development and Applications for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi

Project Sponsors: USACE-LACPR; USACE-MVN; USACE-HPO; FEMA Region VI

Collaborators: Bruce Ebersole, Don Resio, Ty Wamsley, Jane Smith, CHL US Army ERDC; John Atkinson, Hugh Roberts, Arcadis; Hasan Pourtaheri, Jay Ratcliff, USACE-MVN; Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin; Randy Kolar, Kendra Dresback, University of Oklahoma

Project Goal: Develop a high resolution coupled atmospheric-wind-wave-tide-riverine flow-storm surge model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi, validate this model and apply the model within a stochastic framework in order to establish 100 year flood levels in Louisiana and Mississippi and investigate the influence of barrier islands, built barriers, and marshes on surge levels in the region.

Project Documentation:
"Flood Insurance Study: Southeastern Parishes, Louisiana, Intermediate Submission 2: Offshore Water Levels and Waves," FEMA, US Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, July 24, 2008

S. Bunya, J.C. Dietrich, J.J. Westerink, B.A. Ebersole, J.M. Smith,  J.H. Atkinson, R. Jensen, D.T. Resio, R.A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V.J. Cardone, A.T. Cox, M.D. Powell, H.J. Westerink, H.J. Roberts, “A High "Resolution Coupled Riverine Flow, Tide, Wind, Wind Wave and Storm Surge Model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi: Part I - Model Development and Validation,” Monthly Weather Review, 138, 345-377, 2010.

Dietrich, J.C., S. Bunya, J.J. Westerink, B.A. Ebersole, J.M. Smith,  J.H. Atkinson, R. Jensen, D.T. Resio, R.A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V.J. Cardone, A.T. Cox, M.D. Powell, H.J. Westerink, H.J. Roberts, “A High Resolution Coupled Riverine Flow, Tide, Wind, Wind Wave and Storm Surge Model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi: Part II - Synoptic Description and Analyses of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ,” Monthly Weather Review, 138, 378-404, 2010.

Dietrich, J.C., J.J. Westerink, A.B. Kennedy, J.M. Smith, R. Jensen, M. Zijlema, L.H. Holthuijsen, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, Jr., M.D. Powell, V.J. Cardone, A.T. Cox, G.W. Stone, H. Pourtaheri, M.E. Hope, S. Tanaka, L.G. Westerink, H.J. Westerink, Z. Cobell, "Hurricane Gustav (2008) Waves and Storm Surge: Hindcast, Synoptic Analysis and Validation in Southern Louisiana," Monthly Weather Review, 139, 2488-2522, DOI 10.1175/2011MWR3611.1, 2011.

Hope, M.E., J.J. Westerink, A.B. Kennedy, P.C. Kerr, J.C. Dietrich, C. Dawson, C.J. Bender, J.M. Smith, R.E. Jensen, M. Zijlema, L.H. Holthuijsen, R.A. Luettich Jr., M.D. Powell, V.J. Cardone, A.T. Cox, H. Poutaheri, H.J. Roberts, J.H. Atkinson, S. Tanaka, H.J. Westerink, and L.G. Westerink, "Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike (2008) waves, forerunner, and storm surge," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 4424-4460, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20314, 2013.

Kennedy, A.B., U. Gravois, B.C. Zachry, J.J. Westerink, M.E. Hope, J.C. Dietrich, M.D. Powell, A.T. Cox, R.A. Luettich, R.G. Dean, "Origin of the Hurricane Ike Forerunner Surge," Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L08608, DOI 10.1029/2011GL047090, 2011j, 2011.

Storm Surge Model Development and Applications for Texas

Project Sponsors: USACE-MVN; FEMA Region VI

Collaborators: John Atkinson, Hugh Roberts, Arcadis; Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin; Don Resio, CHL US Army ERDC; Chris Bender, Taylor Engineering; Randy Kolar, Kendra Dresback, University of Oklahoma

Project Goal: Develop a high resolution coupled atmospheric-wind-wave-tide-riverine flow-storm surge model for Texas, validate this model and apply the model within a stochastic framework in order to establish 100 year flood levels in coastal Texas.

Project Documentation:
Hope, M.E., J.J. Westerink, A.B. Kennedy, P.C. Kerr, J.C. Dietrich, C. Dawson, C.J. Bender, J.M. Smith, R.E. Jensen, M. Zijlema, L.H. Holthuijsen, R.A. Luettich Jr., M.D. Powell, V.J. Cardone, A.T. Cox, H. Poutaheri, H.J. Roberts, J.H. Atkinson, S. Tanaka, H.J. Westerink, and L.G. Westerink, "Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike (2008) waves, forerunner, and storm surge," Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 4424-4460, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20314, 2013.

Kennedy, A.B., U. Gravois, B.C. Zachry, J.J. Westerink, M.E. Hope, J.C. Dietrich, M.D. Powell, A.T. Cox, R.A. Luettich, R.G. Dean, "Origin of the Hurricane Ike Forerunner Surge," Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L08608, DOI 10.1029/2011GL047090, 2011j, 2011.

**Texas FEMA Report**

Collaborative Research: NSF PetaApps Storm Surge Modeling on Petascale Computers

Project Sponsor: National Science Foundation Award No. OCI-0746232

Collaborators: Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin; Anna Spagnuolo, Oakland University

Project Goal: Develop CG and DG based coastal hydrodynamics for peta-scale computers efficiently operating 10,000's of processors simultaneously and improve the physics by tightly coupling to rainfall-runoff models

Project Documentation:
Dietrich. J.C., M. Zijlema, J.J. Westerink, L.H. Holthuijsen, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, R. Jensen, J.M. Smith, G.S. Stelling, G.W. Stone, “Modeling Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge using Integrally-Coupled, Scalable Computations,” Coastal Engineering, 58, 45-65, 2011.

Wirasaet, D., S. Tanaka, E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "A Performance Comparison of Nodal Discontinuous Galerkin Methods on Triangles and Quadrilaterals," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 64, 1336-1362, 2010.

Tanaka, S., S. Bunya, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, Jr., "Scalability of an Unstructured Grid Continuous Galerkin Based Hurricane Storm Surge Model," Journal of Scientific Computing, 46, 329-358, 2011.

Dawson, C., J. Westerink, E. Kubatko, J. Proft, C. Mirabito, "Parallel Finite Element Models for Hurricane Storm Surges," Proceedings of the Teragrid '08 Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 9-13, 2008.

E.J Kubatko, S. Bunya, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, C. Mirabito, “A Performance Comparison of Continuous and Discontinuous Finite Element Shallow Water Models,” Journal of Scientific Computing, 40, 315-339, 2009.

D.T. Resio and J.J. Westerink, “Modeling the physics of storm surges,” Physics Today, 61, 9, 33-38, 2008.

Dietrich, J.C., S. Tanaka, J.J. Westerink, C.N. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, Jr., M. Zijlema, L.H. Holthuijsen, J.M. Smith, L.G. Westerink, H.J. Westerink, "Performance of the Unstructured-Mesh, SWAN+ADCIRC Model in Computing Hurricane Waves and Surge," Journal of Scientific Computing, 52, 468-497, 2012.

Air-Sea Interaction and Flow Resistance, Wave-Current and Vegetation Effects for Hurricane Storm Surge Computation

Project Sponsor: USACE-Morphos

Collaborators: Jane Smith and Ty Wamsley, CHL USACE-ERDC

Project Goal: Test improved bottom friction forumulation and air-sea drag relationships to refine model skill in storm surge forecasting

Project Documentation:
D.T. Resio and J.J. Westerink, “Modeling the physics of storm surges,” Physics Today, 61, 9, 33-38, 2008.

Kerr, P.C., J.J. Westerink, J.C. Dietrich, R.C. Martyr, S. Tanaka, D.T. Resio, J.M. Smith, H.J. Westerink, L.G. Westerink, T. Wamsley, M. van Ledden, W. deJong, "Surge Generation Mechanisms in the Lower Mississippi River and Discharge Dependency,"Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 139, 326-335, 2013.

Riverine Flows, Tides and Surge in the Lower Mississippi River and Delta and Atchafalaya River and Delta

Project Sponsor: USACE-MVN

Collaborators: John Atkinson, Hugh Roberts, Arcadis; Hasan Pourtaheri, Nancy Powell, USACE-MVN

Project Goal: Refine and validate the SL15 model for riverine discharges, tides and surges in the Mississippi River and Delta and the Atchafalaya River and Delta. Study the influence of high riverine discharges on surge levels propagating up these rivers and through their distributaries.

Project Documentation:
Martyr, R.C., J.C. Dietrich, J.J. Westerink, P.C. Kerr, C. Dawson, J.M. Smith, H. Pourtaheri, N. Powell, M. Van Ledden, S. Tanaka, H.J. Roberts, H.J. Westerink, L.G. Westerink, "Simulating Hurricane Storm Surge in the Lower Mississippi River under Varying Flow Conditions," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 139, 492-501, 2013. 

Kerr, P.C., J.J. Westerink, J.C. Dietrich, R.C. Martyr, S. Tanaka, D.T. Resio, J.M. Smith, H.J. Westerink, L.G. Westerink, T. Wamsley, M. van Ledden, W. deJong, "Surge Generation Mechanisms in the Lower Mississippi River and Discharge Dependency,"Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 139, 326-335, 2013.

Hurricane Inundation Risk in the North Pacific Ocean

Project Sponsor: U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory

Collaborators: Jane M. Smith, US ERDC, Ty Wamsley, US ERDC, Kwok Fai Cheung, University of Hawaii, Andrew Kennedy, University of Notre Dame, Alexandros Taflanidis, University of Notre Dame

Project Goal: Develop a hurricane storm surge, wave and wave runup data base for the Hawaiian Islands that can be used to produce real time forecasts for incoming hurricanes as well as inundation risk maps.

Project Documentation:
Kennedy, A.B., J.J. Westerink, J.M. Smith, M.E. Hope, M. Hartman, A. Taflanidis, S. Tanaka, H. Westerink, K. Cheung, T. Smith, M. Hamann, M. Minamide, A. Ota, C. Dawson, "Tropical cyclone inundation potential on the Hawaiian Islands of Oahu and Kauai," Ocean Modelling, 52-53, 54-68, 2012.

Taflanidis, A.A., A.B. Kennedy, J.J. Westerink, J. Smith, K.F.Cheung, M. Hope, S. Tanaka, "Rapid Assessment of Wave and Surge Risk during Landfalling Hurricanes: Probabilistic Approach", Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 139, 171-182, 2013.

Supplemental Funding Request for the Application of the ADCIRC Coastal Circulation Model for Predicting Near Shore and Inner Shore Transport of Oil from the Horizon Oil Spill

Project Sponsor: National Science Foundation RAPID; Department of Homeland Security

Collaborators: Richard A. Luettich, University of North Carolina, Clint Dawson, The University of Texas at Austin, Robert Twilley, Louisiana State University, Casey Diestrich, North Carolina State University

Project Goal: Develop real time forecasting system for oil spill tracking along the Gulf Coast with a focus on oil movement into estuaries, wetlands, and floodplains.

Project Documentation:
Dietrich, J.C., C.J. Trahan, M.T. Howard, J.G. Fleming, R.J. Weaver, S. Tanaka, L. Yu, R.A. Luettich, C.N. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, G. Wells, A. Lu, K. Vega, A. Kubach, K.M. Dresback, R.L. Kolar, C. Kaiser, R.R. Twilley, "Surface trajectories of oil transport along the northern coastline of the Gulf of Mexico," Continental Shelf Research, 41, 17-47, 2012.

CMG Collaborative Research: Adaptive Numerical Methods for Shallow Water Circulation with Applications to Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

Project Sponsor: National Science Foundation Award No. DMS-0620696

Collaborators: Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin; Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Project Goal: Develop a new generation of algorithms for coastal flow and transport equations that are:
                              - Robust and accurate in solving propagation and advection
                              - Elementally mass conservative
                              - Suited for multi-physics
                              - Suited for meter scale resolutions
                              - Highly parallelizable
                              - h and p adaptive

Project Documentation:
Dietrich. J.C., M. Zijlema, J.J. Westerink, L.H. Holthuijsen, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, R. Jensen, J.M. Smith, G.S. Stelling, G.W. Stone, “Modeling Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge using Integrally-Coupled, Scalable Computations,” Coastal Engineering, 58, 45-65, 2011.

Wirasaet, D., S. Tanaka, E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "A Performance Comparison of Nodal Discontinuous Galerkin Methods on Triangles and Quadrilaterals," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 64, 1336-1362, 2010.

Tanaka, S., S. Bunya, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, Jr., "Scalability of an Unstructured Grid Continuous Galerkin Based Hurricane Storm Surge Model," Journal of Scientific Computing, 46, 329-358, 2011.
Kubatko, E.J., C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, “Time Step Restrictions for Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Methods on Triangular Grids,” Journal Computational Physics, 227, 9697-9710, 2008.

Kubatko, E.J., S. Bunya, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, “Dynamic p-adaptive Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for the Shallow Water Equations,” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 198, 1766-1774 , 2009.

Bunya, S., E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, “A Wetting and Drying Treatment for the Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Solution to the Shallow Water Equations,” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 198, 1548-1562, 2009.

Wave and Circulation Prediction on Unstructured Grids

Project Sponsor: Office of Naval Research Award No. N00014-06-1-0285

Collaborators: Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin; Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Guus Stelling, Leo Holthuizen, Delft University of Technology

Project Goal: Dynamically couple wind wave models with coastal circulation models
                              - Apply tight two-way coupling on identical unstructured grids
                              - Apply dynamic h-p adaptivity to resolve waves, wave radiation stress
                                gradients and currents as they evolve
                              - Optimize parallel scaling

Project Documentation:
Dietrich. J.C., M. Zijlema, J.J. Westerink, L.H. Holthuijsen, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, R. Jensen, J.M. Smith, G.S. Stelling, G.W. Stone, “Modeling Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge using Integrally-Coupled, Scalable Computations,” Coastal Engineering, 58, 45-65, 2011.

Wirasaet, D., S. Tanaka, E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, "A Performance Comparison of Nodal Discontinuous Galerkin Methods on Triangles and Quadrilaterals," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 64, 1336-1362, 2010.

Tanaka, S., S. Bunya, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, R.A. Luettich, Jr., "Scalability of an Unstructured Grid Continuous Galerkin Based Hurricane Storm Surge Model," Journal of Scientific Computing, 46, 329-358, 2011.

Kubatko, E.J., C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, “Time Step Restrictions for Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Methods on Triangular Grids,” Journal Computational Physics, 227, 9697-9710, 2008.

Kubatko, E.J., S. Bunya, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, “Dynamic p-adaptive Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for the Shallow Water Equations,” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 198, 1766-1774, 2009.

Bunya, S., E.J. Kubatko, J.J. Westerink, C. Dawson, “A Wetting and Drying Treatment for the Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Solution to the Shallow Water Equations,” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 198, 1548-1562, 2009.

Kubatko, E.J., S. Bunya, C. Dawson, J.J. Westerink, C. Mirabito, “A Performance Comparison of Continuous and Discontinuous Finite Element Shallow Water Models,” Journal of Scientific Computing, 40, 315-339, 2009.

(top)